CO2 CONCENTRATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE: how many years are left to act?
Several scientists say 2050. But planning our actions with 2050 in mind it may be too careless… What we must keep an eye on is the following figure: 500 ppm. This is the threshold for CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. When overpassed (now we are at around 411 ppm and are growing at a rate of 2.6 ppm more per year) there would be severe climate changes that could make our dear Planet an inhospitable one. Think about yourself….CO2 emissions is a bad habit we seem unable to exit. But we can! And we should do it as soon as possible to ‘mitigate’ climate change effects.
The meaning of the measure
Climate change is becoming the most important challenge for humanity in the near future. Understanding the driving factors of global warming is a starting (and key) point in order to correctly address this challenge. One of these factors is CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. In fact, according to the record of CO2 and temperature preserved in ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, there is a clear correlation between CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and air temperature (the higher the concentration, the higher air temperature will be).
This is why every six months we show (at www.lteconomy.it/en) the weekly figures on CO2 concentration observed at the Mauna Loa centre (the site chosen by Charles D. Keeling, the scientist who started the studies on the proportion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere). CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is measured in part per million (ppm). For more details on the meaning of this measure, see the following article and the interview with Pieter Tans, Head of the Maunha Loa Observatory.
A jump into the past: May 2013 data and a comparisons between annual peaks
The May 9th 2013 figure is extremely significant as CO2 concentration at the Mauna Loa Observatory reached (for the first time since the beginning of recording) 400 parts per million (ppm). It is a high value, considering that it was 280 ppm in the pre-industrial era and a concentration of 500 ppm is considered by some scientists as a tipping point, by which Earth will reach a new hotter equilibrium.
After the peak reached in May, considering seasonality, data gradually reduced till the minimum in September 2013. Then CO2 concentration recovered again, and, year after year has reached new peaks. The latest one in the second week of May 2017 at 410.36 ppm.
The long term analysis confirms an uprising trend
During the year, the CO2 concentration is strongly influenced by the intensity of economic activity. There is therefore a seasonal pattern in each year: starting from January the figure rises to reach a peak in May, and then lowers again to a minimum which generally occurs in September. However, year after year, we are observing an uprising trend. Just make a year on year comparison of weekly data: it is observed an annual increase ranging between 2 and 3 ppm.
Now let’s give a look at the latest data available. In the fourth week of December 2017, CO2 concentration was 407.2 ppm, much higher than the level observed in the fourth week of December 2016 (404.7) and of December 2015 (402.1). If we make a year on year comparison of the fourth week of each month, an average increase of 2.7 ppm has been recorded during the last 3 years (see the table).
The scenery
If this trend is to continue, and we consider an optimistic annual increase of 2 ppm, CO2 concentration will reach 500 ppm in just a 50 years, with a big impact on humankind and all the planet. CO2 concentration in the atmosphere must be absolutely reduced; but this must be done in a wider strategy aimed at resolving the current ecological crisis. We must change the current economic model from a short term view to a long term one.
Read more on Long Term economy, the unique model able to create a real sustainable economy.
Tab. Co2 concentration at Mauna Loa center since January 2014, year-on-year comparison
|
Period
|
CO2 concentration (in ppm)
|
Period
|
CO2 concentration (in ppm)
|
ch. (in ppm)
|
ch. annual average
|
|
Jan. 2014 4th week
|
397.80
|
Jan. 2015 4th week
|
400.18
|
2.38
|
|
|
Feb. 2014 4th week
|
397.72
|
Feb. 2015 4th week
|
401.10
|
3.38
|
|
|
Mar. 2014 4th week
|
399.86
|
Mar. 2015 4th week
|
401.75
|
1.89
|
|
|
Apr. 2014 4th week
|
402.15
|
Apr. 2015 4th week
|
403.78
|
1.63
|
|
|
May. 2014 4th week
|
401.69
|
May. 2015 4th week
|
403.81
|
2.12
|
|
|
Jun. 2014 4th week
|
400.82
|
Jun. 2015 4th week
|
402.17
|
1.35
|
|
|
Jul. 2014 4th week
|
397.74
|
Jul. 2015 4th week
|
400.21
|
2.47
|
|
|
Aug. 2014 4th week
|
396.47
|
Aug. 2015 4th week
|
398.84
|
2.37
|
|
|
Sep. 2014 4th week
|
395.41
|
Sep. 2015 4th week
|
397.20
|
1.79
|
|
|
Oct. 2014 4th week
|
397.16
|
Oct. 2015 4th week
|
398.48
|
1.32
|
|
|
Nov. 2014 4th week
|
397.90
|
Nov. 2015 4th week
|
400.37
|
2.47
|
|
|
Dec. 2014 4th week
|
399.65
|
Dec. 2015 4th week
|
402.07
|
2.42
|
2.13
|
|
Jan. 2015 4th week
|
400.18
|
Jan. 2016 4th week
|
403.11
|
2.93
|
|
|
Feb. 2015 4th week
|
401.10
|
Feb. 2016 4th week
|
404.01
|
2.91
|
|
|
Mar. 2015 4th week
|
401.75
|
Mar. 2016 4th week
|
405.42
|
3.67
|
|
|
Apr. 2015 4th week
|
403.78
|
Apr. 2016 4th week
|
407.79
|
4.01
|
|
|
May. 2015 4th week
|
403.81
|
May. 2016 4th week
|
407.53
|
3.72
|
|
|
Jun. 2015 4th week
|
402.17
|
Jun. 2016 4th week
|
405.97
|
3.80
|
|
|
Jul. 2015 4th week
|
400.21
|
Jul. 2016 4th week
|
403.47
|
3.26
|
|
|
Aug. 2015 4th week
|
398.84
|
Aug. 2016 4th week
|
400.98
|
2.14
|
|
|
Sep. 2015 4th week
|
397.20
|
Sep. 2016 4th week
|
400.72
|
3.52
|
|
|
Oct. 2015 4th week
|
398.48
|
Oct. 2016 4th week
|
402.81
|
4.33
|
|
|
Nov. 2015 4th week
|
400.37
|
Nov. 2016 4th week
|
404.38
|
4.01
|
|
|
Dec. 2015 4th week
|
402.07
|
Dec. 2016 4th week
|
404.74
|
2.67
|
3.41
|
|
Jan. 2016 4th week
|
403.11
|
Jan. 2017 4th week
|
406.48
|
3.37
|
|
|
Feb. 2016 4th week
|
404.01
|
Feb. 2017 4th week
|
407.37
|
3.36
|
|
|
Mar. 2016 4th week
|
405.42
|
Mar. 2017 4th week
|
408.37
|
2.95
|
|
|
Apr. 2016 4th week
|
407.79
|
Apr. 2017 4th week
|
409.92
|
2.13
|
|
|
May. 2016 4th week
|
407.53
|
May. 2017 4th week
|
409.52
|
1.99
|
|
|
Jun. 2016 4th week
|
405.97
|
Jun. 2017 4th week
|
407.71
|
1.74
|
|
|
Jul. 2016 4th week
|
403.47
|
Jul. 2017 4th week
|
406.67
|
3.20
|
|
|
Aug. 2016 4th week
|
400.98
|
Aug. 2017 4th week
|
404.19
|
3.21
|
|
|
Sep. 2016 4th week
|
400.72
|
Sep. 2017 4th week
|
402.77
|
2.05
|
|
|
Oct. 2016 4th week
|
402.81
|
Oct. 2017 4th week
|
404.01
|
1.20
|
|
|
Nov. 2016 4th week
|
404.38
|
Nov. 2017 4th week
|
406.36
|
1.98
|
|
|
Dec. 2016 4th week
|
404.74
|
Dec. 2017 4th week
|
407.24
|
2.50
|
2.47
|
|
Jan. 2017 4th week
|
406.48
|
Jan. 2018 4th week
|
407.90
|
1.42
|
|
|
Feb. 2017 4th week
|
407.37
|
Feb. 2018 4th week
|
408.92
|
1.55
|
|
|
Mar. 2017 4th week
|
408.37
|
Mar. 2018 4th week
|
410.06
|
1.69
|
|
|
Apr. 2017 4th week
|
409.92
|
Apr. 2018 4th week
|
411.68
|
1.76
|
|
|
May. 2017 4th week
|
409.52
|
May. 2018 4th week
|
411.39
|
1.87
|
|
|
Jun. 2017 4th week
|
407.71
|
Jun. 2018 4th week
|
410.57
|
2.86
|
1.86
|
|
|
|
|
Average Change
|
2.56
|
2.56
|
Source: LTEconomy, elaboration on ESRL-NOAA
Graph - Co2 concentration in ppm, Mauna Loa, weekly data
Source: LTEconomy, elaborationon ESRL-NOAA data
LTEconomy, 26 July 2018
From NSIDC, July 2018
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html
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